What could a Trump presidency mean for key US allies like Australia?

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TRANSCRIPT
“This is a magnificent victory for the American people that will allow us to make America great again.”
When Donald Trump won the 2024 election, it spurred talk almost immediately of what that meant for the country’s domestic policy – and for its relationship with key allies like Australia.
When Anthony Albanese was in the opposition in 2017, he had this to say about Donald Trump:
“He scares the sh*t out of me.”
But now as Prime Minister, Mr Albanese has observed the proprieties and says Australia is prepared to work with the incoming President.
“Just after 10 am this morning, I spoke with President Trump and I congratulated him on his election victory. It was a very constructive discussion.”
Former Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison believes the President-elect’s comeback will be a positive thing for everyone.
“I know President Trump will be great for global security and great for Australia.”
But others in the political class – and policy experts – say it’s naive not to expect trouble.
They cite Donald Trump’s unpredictable and volatile nature, and argue his reign from 2016 caused more problems than it ever solved.
Rodrigo Praino [[pree-no]] is Professor of Politics at Flinders University, and Director of its Jeff Bleich [[blike]] Centre for Democracy.
“How the things that Trump says translate into things that Trump does – because these are not necessarily the same. Sometimes he says certain things and then he behaves slightly differently. So it’s a matter of how much of what he was saying was campaign rhetoric versus now, the actual act of governing.”
The P-M has maintained in Parliament nothing about the US-Australia relationship is going to change.
“The alliance between Australia and the United States has always been bigger than individuals. It has stood tall through generations of governments from both sides of the aisle.”
The important of the relationship is perhaps why there’s been a flurry of activity to smooth over tensions between Mr Trump and US Ambassador Kevin Rudd.
“I heard he’s a little bit nasty. I hear he’s not the brightest bulb. But I don’t know much about him. If he’s at all hostile, he will not be there long.”
Mr Rudd has deleted tweets critical of Mr Trump from his social media account, including one that said he was “the most destructive president in history”…who “drags America and democracy through the mud”.
And the government has issued a carefully worded statement in support of that move.
But still, there are some not willing to take a chance on the whims of Donald Trump.
Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young says Australia needs to consider the election as an opportunity to pull out of AUKUS.
It’s something Professor Dennis Altman, a Vice Chancellor fellow at La Trobe University, says the Greens aren’t alone in recommending.
“Let’s face it: the people who have been pointing that out include people like Malcolm Turnbull, who’s a former Prime Minister, and Gareth Evans, who’s a former Foreign Minister…. It’s something that people with foreign policy expertise have been trying to say for the last year and a half.”
Those concerns haven’t stopped Foreign Minister Penny Wong from already moving to secure the agreement in a recent visit to Washington.
“Before an election it’s important that we meet with both the government of the day but also the potential alternative government. It was a very good discussion… and very pleased that the sort of bipartisan support that we’ve seen previously from visiting congressional delegations who you might have heard from but also public statements, that we have an understanding on both sides of politics in the US about the importance of AUKUS.”
Then there’s China.
During the election campaign, Mr Trump vowed to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10 per cent levy on all other imports.
It’s led to fears Australia’s trade could be put at risk.
Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy has confirmed at Budget Estimates that his department has modelled that policy’s impact on the Australian economy, at the request of the Treasurer.
“The imposition of trade restrictions such as tariffs typically lead to lower growth and higher inflation.”
He says it creates uncertainty.
“The implications for Australia are more about growth – because of the implications for China of course and their demand for our goods… It’s a significant change that’s potentially in play. I discussed it with the Treasurer – and I don’t know. We may have both agreed  it would be a good idea to make both him and others more aware, and Foreign Minister of course, of the implications so they were understood.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says there’s nothing really to fear from any potential changes – and they’ve been preparing for what could happen.
But the prospect of an inflationary economic agenda remains a painful one for the government.
Professor Praino [[pree-no]] suggests Labor could pay a heavy price for those concerns at the next election.
“The vast majority of Americans have reported to have issues with inflation and the cost of living. And in a situation like this, if you were to ask me what were to happen to the party in power, I would say the party in power gets definitely ousted.”
Little wonder then that with a federal election expected within months, and cost-of-living pressures at the forefront of Australian voters’ minds, the Coalition is pressing the issue hard, including Mick Fels, the Liberal candidate for the Perth seat of Swan.
“Labor has wasted two and a half years with lots of talk and no action. We’re ready to change gears here in Swan and across the country.”
The economy might be looming large for many, but climate change also remains a significant concern.
A recent report found Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom contribute 60 per cent of emissions despite making up only 6 per cent of the Commonwealth’s population.
The report prompted Tuvalu’s Prime Minister to declare at the recent CHOGM ((Commonwealth Heads of Government)) summit Australia needs to do more.
“It is a death sentence – not a phrase I use lightly – for us, Tuvalu, if larger nations continue to increase their emission levels.”
Penny Wong has said Australia is taking action.
“The vast majority of new coal-fired power is in developing countries, it is in China. Australia has to reduce its emissions. But the whole world, if we are going to combat sea level rise, temperature rising, the whole world will have to reduce emissions.”
Professor Altman says the U-S is unlikely to play its part in that process, if Donald Trump delivers on his pledge to take the United States out of the Paris Accords.
“The US will no longer be pushing for measures to reduce global climate change. That has very severe implications for the countries in our region. And I’ve noticed that today some people in the Australian Liberal Party are already talking about well, maybe this means we should rethink our commitment on climate change. So there is an immediate flow-through from Trump’s policies to what might well happen in this country.”
And the worries don’t stop there.
For Dr Denise Goodwin from Monash University, Donald Trump’s election win could introduce a new era in political campaigning in Australia.
She says misinformation is already being easily spread on social media, picked by voters who start to believe the lie once it’s been repeated often enough.
Dr Goodwin is worried local politicians will increasingly seek to copy Mr Trump’s embrace of misinformation, and other divisive campaigning approaches.
“We know that people potentially have  already gone over to America. And they’ll be learning. They’ll be looking now at what has worked in terms of the votes that are coming through. We know that some parties are already setting up websites to attack independents and teal candidates, for example. We know that there’s tactics already starting to spread some of this misinformation or mistruths that can create those seeds of doubt, because they know that it influences voter behaviour.”
Advocates say U-S attitudes have already started to show up in Australia, especially on the issue of abortion, which is legal and meant to be widely available.
Right-wing politicians like Coalition senator Jacinta Price have repeatedly raised the issue of late-term terminations – a favourite topic of anti-abortion activists in the U-S abortion debate – while concerns remain about women not being able to access services in Australia’s rural and regional areas.
But Coalition spokeswoman Jane Hume has promised abortion is a settled issue.
“A Dutton-led Coalition government has no plans, no policy, and no interest in unwinding women’s reproductive rights.”