India needs state-specific population management plans, not an overriding policy

Two southern chief ministers recently appealed to the citizens of their states to have for more children. The appeal sounded out of place in the world’s most populous country, which with a population of 1.428 billion has beaten China’s 1.425 billion people. Their appeals reveal the existing demographic disparities in the country, which also have inherent political implications.

The chief ministers making open appeals were the Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin and his counterpart from Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu. Fertility rates are falling in southern states unlike in states like Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar. The appeals come in the backdrop of the population-based delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, which is due in 2026.
The solution clearly lies in replacing population control with population management, with a state-specific plans instead of an overriding policy or plan. Earlier, Naidu was in favour of controlling population but in June 2024, soon after coming to power, his cabinet rescinded the two-child norm policy that debarred people with more than two children from contesting rural and urban local elections.
According to government data, the state which is expected to have least population growth during 2011-2036 period is Himachal Pradesh (6%), followed by Tamil Nadu (8.5%). The states, which will have projected growths in the range of 10-20% are, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Manipur, Karnataka, Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana and West Bengal. On the other hand, population in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Nagaland, Uttar Pradesh, Mizoram, Puducherry, Bihar, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, NCT of Delhi, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu is projected to increase by more than 30%.
Addressing the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in Delhi on November 16, 2024, Naidu explained how the fertility rates in southern states had gone below the replacement rate. He said population management will be an asset in the years to come.
Referring to silence (of political class) on the sensitive subject he said people do ask me what population management is? Answering the question himself, he said several European countries today face the problem of an ageing population. The same trend is now being seen in southern India where the fertility rate is 1.6 while the desired rate is 2.1.
Observing that Indian human resources will play an important role in the service sector all over the world, Naidu said, “If we can manage the population and 30 crores people go all over the world and do services and earn money everywhere. We will rule globally”. His suggestion to replace population control with a population management sounds logical, feasible and acceptable in a country with huge diversity in its demography.
Perhaps Naidu missed out a few vital points – increased population will also put burden on the existing resources and hungry citizens, poor education and health cannot produce brilliance.
Naidu, who is an influential politician and supports the Narendra Modi government, may like to use his office to pressure the centre to ponder over a population management policy. Point to be noted here is that the phrase population control is not exactly popular in India, given the cases of forced fertilisations carried out during the Emergency.
Prime Minister Modi, had also expressed his concern over population explosion in his Independence Day address to the nation in 2019. He had then asked both the central and the state governments to come up with schemes to deal with the issue. There has been some movement forward with all suggesting incentives than coercion in implementing the schemes. Incentives range from special allowance to those who have two children than debarring the defaulters from availing benefits.
According to government data, India’s population is expected to increase from 1.21 billion to 1. 52.2 billion during the period 2011-2036 – an increase of 25.7% in 25 years at the rate of 1.0 % annually. As a consequence, the density of population will increase from 368 to 463 persons per sq km.
Population policies have been framed several times since India’s Independence. In fact, India was among the first developing nation to come with a family planning program. The Uttar Pradesh Population (Control, Stabilization and Welfare) Bill, was introduced in 2021, which stated that individuals disregarding it in the state will be barred from contesting local bodies’ polls, going after government positions, or getting any sort of sponsorship. Not much was heard about it thereafter.